Week 14 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:
Caught a couple of nice breaks last week to go 7-3 ATS, but to be quite honest, I feel I could have been 10-0, as the Lions’ second-half destruction, the Texans giving up 15 late points to the Jaguars in a backdoor effort, and the Falcons blowing four great scoring opportunities on interceptions kept me from doing so. In any case, it was nice to get back on the winning side of the ledger again finally after a brutal month of November. Perhaps a calendar change is just what the doctor ordered. As we press on to a lighter Week 14 schedule of 13 games, I now post a 55-59-2 ATS (48.2%) season record. Here are the Week 14 NFL best bets I have come up with after pouring through this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Report.Green Bay at Detroit
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ETI was all set to dive in on Green Bay once again until the line dropped all the way to -3, and I eventually got scared off by a streak system and a couple of rematch/revenge trends that I found on the NFL Analytics Report. That said, the condition of the Lions’ defense scares me a lot, and I think the Packers will have little to no trouble moving the ball and scoring.
With that in mind, the Lions do have the horses to answer. Neither team played well offensively when they met back in October, but that game was influenced heavily by a constant rain bombarding Lambeau Field. I think both offenses are set up better in the indoor environment. Looking at the recent history of this head-to-head series in Detroit, the Over is also 6-2-1 in the last nine. It coincides a lot with the overall pattern of Lions’ home games in recent years. In fact, in their last 28 games at Ford Field, playing to totals of 48.8 on average, the games have produced 54.6 PPG, with the Lions scoring 32.3 PPG of those themselves.
We also have a nice totals trend showing how Green Bay’s QB can put up numbers when he gets hot, just like he did a year ago at this time: Jordan Love is on 11-4 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win. Normally, two potent offenses like this would be getting more Over support on the DraftKings Betting Splits, but as of Thursday morning, both the handle and bet volume were under 70%. I could easily see a game where both teams are in the high 20s to low 30s.
Week 14 NFL Best Bets: Let’s go OVER 51.5 in Green Bay-Detroit
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ETWith all due respect to the fight the Browns put up in Denver last Monday night, only to come up nine points short, this game at Pittsburgh should be a totally different animal. The stadium formerly known as Heinz Field has been a house of horrors for them: Pittsburgh is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 hosting Cleveland. In all actuality, playing divisional foes has been rough for head coach Kevin Stefanski’s team: Cleveland is 21-36 ATS (36.8%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015, as have rematch games, as Cleveland is on a lengthy 9-27-1 ATS rematch skid in the last 37 tries.
The Steelers, meanwhile, are finding different ways to win and can be equally proficient on both sides of the ball. Last week, they outscored the Bengals in a 44-38 decision. No worries, as Pittsburgh is 23-5 SU and 22-6 ATS coming off a game allowing 30+ points since 2013. QB Russell Wilson had a huge game against Cincy to open his December run, which is no surprise since veteran QBs in new places play best in the key month of December, when postseason berths are usually on the line, going 48-45 SU & 51-39-3 ATS (56.7%) since 2004.
There is also a little bit of revenge in play for this one, as just a couple of weeks ago, the Browns upset the Steelers in a snow globe matchup on TNF. That puts this rematch betting system in play: Teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record 20% or better outright have gone 41-15 SU and 35-21 ATS (62.5%) in the rematch contest. Head coach Mike Tomlin’s team has taken control of the AFC North, and I’d be surprised if they let the Browns put that in jeopardy again.
Week 14 NFL Best Bets: I’ll go Pittsburgh -6.5 to take care of business vs. Cleveland
Carolina at Philadelphia
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ETI have studied some late-season trends and systems this week and have discovered that it isn’t a very profitable endeavor to back double-digit home favorites in December and January regular-season games lately. That, combined with the lack of ATS success at home lately for the Eagles, had me all ready to hop on Carolina this week until common sense kicked in.
This Philadelphia team is clicking right now and it makes little sense to step on the tracks when the train is coming through. Sure, the Eagles have a recent history of not playing all that well at Lincoln Financial Field, as the Washington win a few weeks ago snapped a six-game ATS losing skid. However, over the last four games, they have turned it up, meaning LFF will provide a more significant edge here. That and the fact that the Panthers haven’t had a true road game since October 27th, as they’ve played three at home and one in Germany since. That has as much to do with their recent uptick as anything else. In fact, including that 10/27 loss at Denver, Carolina was 1-4 SU and ATS on the road, with the average margin of loss being 27.5 PPG!
Take a look at some of the other big-time trends and systems in play for this one. First, Carolina is on 1-13 SU and 2-12 ATS slide vs. elite teams with PPG differentials >=+4.5. Second, QB Bryce Young is 4-19 SU and 9-13 ATS in his last 22 starts as an underdog. Third, Jalen Hurts (PHI) is 21-3 SU and 14-9-1 ATS (60.9%) as a home favorite. And finally, with Carolina’s recent “hot stretch,” NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 17-44 SU and 17-40-4 ATS (29.8%) in game #4 since 2003.
Week 14 NFL Best Bets: I think Philadelphia (-12.5) has its way with Carolina here
NY Jets at Miami
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ETCall this a gut-feeling play, as with the recent history of the Jets, there usually isn’t a lot of solid information out there to suggest backing them in any game. However, for as much as I believe that oddsmakers have given New York the benefit of the doubt this entire season, I think this is the first week where it looks like they have finally turned against QB Aaron Rodgers & Co. This is a 3-9 team that has been favored in all of its last six games and in nine of the 12 games overall. Not surprisingly, they are 3-9 ATS. Making matters worse, on the DK Betting Splits, the handle public was behind them in every game except last week. If only we had the power of hindsight to be betting those past games again.
I think those behind the counter now realize they have to balance the scales, and I think they have gone too far this time, as I don’t believe Miami has turned anything around and is being priced as if it has. The public at DK is betting the Dolphins at better than a 2-1 ratio, and over the past two-plus seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 130-139 ATS (48.3%).
Getting back to Rodgers, he has always been a solid underdog QB and is on a run in the month of December of 33-8 SU and 26-15 ATS. He usually loves the better weather as well. He will be testing a couple of veteran QB systems here, too: 1) Veteran QBs in new places play best in the key month of December, when postseason berths are usually on the line, going 48-45 SU and 51-39-3 ATS (56.7%) since 2004. 2) Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 44-70 SU but 65-44-5 ATS (59.6%) when playing as underdogs of 3 points or more.
Week 14 NFL Best Bets: I’m going to back the Jets +5.5 in a potential surprise game
Chicago at San Francisco
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ETThere are a few teams this week that are playing on the road and getting some uncomfortable support levels from bettors at DraftKings and, to me, haven’t earned it. For as much as the Bears showed some fight last week in battling back against the Lions, almost to pull a massive upset. In the end, they still lost to drop to 0-5 on the road and have since fired their head coach. Why in the world would 88% of the betting handle at DraftKings be getting behind Chicago here? Remember, over the past two-plus seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 130-139 ATS (48.3%).
I realize San Francisco is very banged up and played like it in the miserable weather game at Buffalo last Sunday night, but the Bears’ road struggles go way back: Chicago is 27-44 ATS (38%) in road/neutral games since 2016. Let’s not forget the struggles of rookie QBs in some particularly applicable spots lately either: The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 119-114-1 ATS (51.1%) in home games but just 101-122-2 ATS (45.3%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, Week 10-EOY, they are just 34-98 SU and 56-74-2 ATS. In their last 150 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 51-108 SU and 71-85-3 ATS (45.5%). This trend dates back to 2018. I realize there are some reasons to doubt the 49ers right now, but they are at home, and Chicago is still a mess.
Week 14 NFL Best Bets: I’ll lay the 4 points with San Francisco to get a win on Sunday
LA Chargers at Kansas City
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ETThe Chiefs continue to take everyone’s best shot week-in and week-out yet continue to survive. A lot of bettors might use the words “lucky” to describe their recent fortunes. That said, they haven’t been lucky against the spread, losing six straight games in that regard. How often does an 11-1 team keep coming up short on the Vegas ledger? This is extremely rare historically, and bettors have been getting taken to the woodshed because of it, as they have backed head coach Andy Reid’s team heavily in nine of their 12 games.
Well, this time, they have completely abandoned the 2-time defending champions as 66^ of handle and 63% of bets were on the visiting Chargers as of Thursday afternoon, despite a modest 4-point home chalk line. Are bettors being set up for the fall once again? Is the second-place division team finally going to be the motivator for Kansas City to put it together?
Take a look at some of the key tidbits I found on the Analytics Report: First, Kansas City’’s QB Patrick Mahomes boasts a 27-10 SU and 23-12 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019. Second, home-field advantage has been big in divisional SNF games of late, with hosts owning an 18-12 SU and 17-12-1 ATS (58.6%) record since 2019. Third, momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 14-21 SU and 14-20-1 ATS (41.2%) in their last 35, but those coming off a win are on a current 24-6 SU and 19-11 ATS (63.3%) surge. Fourth, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG (LAC), have gone just 17-25 SU and 18-24 ATS (42.9%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019. Finally, getting back to the Chiefs recent ATS struggles, NFL teams that have lost their last five games ATS but were playing against a team whom they have AT LEAST an equal won-lost record with have gone 20-15 SU and 21-14 ATS (60%) in their last 35 tries.
Week 14 NFL Best Bets: I’m going to trust Kansas City (-4) to put it together on SNF
Cincinnati at Dallas
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ETDon’t look now, but the Dallas Cowboys have won two games in a row behind substitute QB Cooper Rush and have put up 61 points in the process. They try to make it three straight on Monday night as a sizeable underdog to a team they actually have a better record than right now. That could prove important as there is a MNF trend indicating teams with better records don’t win on Monday night: Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 38-34 SU but just 26-44-2 ATS (37.1%) in the last 72 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
Furthermore, in MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 27-26 SU but 15-36-2 ATS (29.4%) in the last 53. Dallas is in a tougher spot in this one than they were the last two weeks, as head coach Mike McCarthy’s team has had a recent history of stepping up its play for divisional foes. The Bengals have reached a point of desperation, and while I believe the Cowboys will be able to score some on defenseless Cincy, I simply have a hard time seeing them keep up. Much of the 61 points scored in the last two weeks have come from the defense/special teams. Without that, the games are completely different.
I have a pair of trends that can’t be ignored with the Bengals here: 1) Cincinnati is 71-43 ATS on the road dating back to 2011 2) Cincinnati is on an incredible 15-1 SU and ATS run as a road favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2015. I’ll take my chances with 15-1 in what could be considered a go-against-the-grain play for me.
Week 14 NFL Best Bets: Let’s go Cincinnati -5.5 at Dallas on MNF
